Sat, 13 Aug 2022

U.S. agricultural futures fall

Xinhua
01 Jul 2022, 07:18 GMT+10

CHICAGO, June 30 (Xinhua) -- Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) agricultural futures fell across the board on Thursday, led by corn.

The most active corn contract for December delivery plunged 34 cents, or 5.2 percent, to settle at 6.1975 U.S. dollars per bushel. September wheat lost 46 cents, or 4.95 percent, to settle at 8.84 dollars per bushel. November soybean shed 20.25 cents, or 1.37 percent, to settle at 14.58 dollars per bushel.

U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Stocks/Seeding Report leaned slightly bullish for soybeans with seeding down 2.7 million acres from the March Intentions, while corn acres went up 400,000 acres and spring wheat seeding was down 100,000 acres. The combined U.S. corn and soybean seeding added up to 178 million acres, down nearly 2 million acres from March 31. Total 2022 U.S. farmed acres amount to 316.3 million acres, down 900,000 acres from 2021.

USDA estimated that U.S. farmers seeded 89.9 million acres of corn, up from March Intentions of 89.5 million acres; 88.3 million acres of soybean, down from March Intentions of 91 million acres; and 47.1 million acres of wheat, down from 47.4 million acres.

USDA estimated that by June 1, U.S. corn stocks were at 4.346 billion bushels, up from 4.111 billion bushels last year; soybean stocks at 971 million bushels, up from 769 million bushels; wheat stocks at 660 million bushels, down from 845 million bushels. Corn stocks were the third lowest since 2012.

U.S. 2022-2023 soybean stocks will be extremely tight with each 0.5-bushel-per-acre yield loss having a big impact on price. Chicago-based research company AgResource sees the wheat market as close to a seasonal harvest low, while December corn harvest lows are forecast between 5.75 and 6.20 dollars, and November soybean harvest lows are forecast at between 13.50 and 14.00 dollars with normal weather going forward.

The risk today is continued hot/dry weather in July/August that would produce a drop in yield and acceleration of the long-term bullish trend. AgResource sees any weakness into the July 4th holiday as a longer-term buying opportunity.

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