Sat, 28 Jan 2023

Roundup: CBOT agricultural futures trend lower

Xinhua
27 Nov 2022, 15:44 GMT+10

CHICAGO, Nov. 26 (Xinhua) -- CBOT agricultural futures were generally traded lower in the past week due to U.S. Thanksgiving Day holiday and the ongoing COVID-19 impact, Chicago-based research company AgResource said on Saturday.

The agricultural futures are expected to lower on slowing U.S. and world economic growth rates, said AgResource, noting that rallies in U.S. agricultural markets are unlikely to be sustained.

December CBOT corn ended firm for a second week amid positive seasonal trends, as the market turns inwards and focuses on U.S. ethanol production margins and rising interior basis bids. Elevated demand from Mexico has offset weak interest elsewhere. China's market has rallied while Brazilian demand is expected.

South American weather becomes the first priority through December onward. Enough rain will fall to facilitate second corn crop planting in the next three to four weeks, but meaningful subsoil moisture improvement will be lacking. Rainfall of 15-18 inches will be needed between December and February for Argentine yields to reach or exceed trend, the research company said.

Yet, further tightness in global market hinges solely upon supply loss. March corn above 6.80 U.S. dollars will be difficult to sustain.

CBOT wheat contracts found fresh multi-month lows on Russia's continued dominance of world trade. The U.S. market's premium to other markets has narrowed, but there is no indication that U.S. export demand will improve in the next 60 days.

Wheat does have a potentially bullish story in the long run amid year-over-year declines in Black Sea winter seeding and ongoing extreme drought across the U.S. Southern and Western Plains.

Soybean futures were lower in the holiday-shortened trading week and market news was generally limited. Cumulative export inspections of soybean now stand at 629 million bushels, down from 703 million bushels last year.

Brazil's National Supply Company reported soybean planting progress. All indications from South America continue to point toward a record-large crop.

Unlike last year, the United States will see limited soybean sales after Jan. 1, and the pace of exports will continue to trend lower. This keeps CBOT soybean price outlook bearish on rallies, with key resistance for March soybean futures at 14.60-14.90 dollars in the coming months with a test of 12.50-13.25 dollars expected in spring or early summer.

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